Dilettantismus (2)
Der britische Thinktank Chatham House hat eine “Preliminary Analysis of the Voting Figures in Iran’s 2009 Presidential Election” verfasst. Darin heisst es (Hervorhebung von mir, MK):
Working from the province by province breakdowns of the 2009 and 2005 results, released by the Iranian Ministry of Interior, and from the 2006 census as published by the official Statistical Centre of Iran, the following observations about the official data and the debates surrounding it can be made.
- In two Conservative provinces, Mazandaran and Yazd, a turnout of more than 100% was recorded.
- At a provincial level, there is no correlation between the increased turnout, and the swing to Ahmadinejad. This challenges the notion that his victory was due to the massive participation of a previously silent Conservative majority.
- In a third of all provinces, the official results would require that Ahmadinejad took not only all former conservative voters, and al former centrist voters, and all new voters, but also up to 44% of former Reformist voters, despite a decade of conflict between these two groups.
- In 2005, as in 2001 and 1997, conservative candidates, and Ahmadinejad in particular, were markedly unpopular in rural areas. That the countryside always votes conservative is a myth. The claim that this year Ahmadinejad swept the board in more rural provinces flies in the face of these trends.
Die Landbevölkerungsthese wird also klar zurückgewiesen. Die Wahlergebnisse von 2005 – angenommen, sie sind nicht gefälscht – deuten darauf hin, dass Ahmadi-Nejad am ehesten noch unter der urbanen und suburbanen Bevölkerung Anhänger hat.
Und das soll sich nun radikal geändert haben? “Highly implausible”, meint Chatham House.
Grafik: Chatham House
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Hier in Göttingen hat kürztlich Said Amir Ajomand einen Votrag gehalten, in dem er u.a. auf den Hintergrund von Abgeordneten und Inhabern von Regierungsämtern zu sprechen kam. Danach ist die Kleinstadtbevölkerung deutlich überrepräsentiert. Die macht allerding nur etwa 25 % der Bevölkerung aus. Großstädte und Land sind beide stark unterrepräsentiert.